The Ultimate Guide to Sprint Velocity: Predict Agile Success with Confidence

Planning your upcoming sprint can be challenging, especially when you're unsure how much work your team can handle. Sprint velocity helps you set clear expectations by tracking your team’s progress from sprint to sprint. This popular metric is great for Agile teams and product owners because it can help you stay realistic about what you can achieve.

We’ll show you the outdated way to measure sprint velocity – and the Axify way.

With Axify, you can monitor team velocity, analyze it contextually, and spot trends that reveal potential roadblocks or external dependencies. By using your sprint backlog and average velocity, you’ll be better equipped to plan future sprints, focus retrospectives, and adjust for changes in team capacity or project challenges.

Sprint velocity isn’t just a number. It’s the foundation for effective sprint planning and meeting stakeholder expectations while keeping your entire team aligned.

What Is Sprint Velocity? Traditional vs. Axify POV

Sprint velocity is a practical way to measure how much work your team completes during a sprint. This metric offers a snapshot of productivity to help create achievable sprint plans. Sprint velocity is traditionally calculated in story points. 

However, Axify advocates against using story points as they can lead to inaccuracies and misaligned expectations. Instead, we recommend tracking velocity through issue count for a more straightforward and objective approach.

By reviewing the throughput or completed issues from previous sprints, your development team can estimate their average sprint velocity. This average then becomes your guide for planning future sprints.

Monte Carlo Simulation for Forecasting

Axify takes forecasting a step further by using Monte Carlo simulation, a statistical method that predicts outcomes by running thousands of simulations based on historical data. This approach analyzes issue count trends and completion rates to predict how much work your team can realistically accomplish in upcoming sprints. 

This means your sprint planning becomes more data-driven and reliable, reducing reliance on subjective estimates.

Here’s a quick example.

Let’s say your scrum team completed 15 issues in their last sprint and has consistently delivered within this range. This becomes the baseline for your upcoming sprints. Using Axify’s engineering metrics and Monte Carlo simulation, you can confidently forecast future outcomes, considering variability and external factors.

If you're a product owner, sprint velocity using issue count helps you set realistic goals, avoid overloading your team, and better account for external dependencies or unforeseen complexities.

Over time, we believe tracking velocity through issue count can reveal trends and provide deeper insights into your team’s progress. Whether you’re analyzing individual sprints or long-term velocity trends, this scrum metric gives a clearer understanding of team capacity and supports accurate sprint planning.

Pro Tip: Axify helps you analyze historical issue count and track trends by sprint using our engineering metrics dashboard. With the added power of Monte Carlo simulation, you can plan projects more confidently, forecast outcomes effectively, and support your team with insights that drive success.

Why Measure Sprint Velocity

Tracking sprint velocity equips your team with actionable insights for better sprint planning and retrospectives. We have already mentioned some advantages above.

We recommend that you consistently measure velocity to gain clarity on your team’s capacity. This will allow you to plan for achievable sprint goals and avoid the negative impact of over-committing.

Here’s how sprint velocity helps:

• Plan sprints effectively: You can use average velocity from your previous sprints, measured in issue count, to guide capacity and create achievable goals. This ensures your team works within its capacity while delivering meaningful progress.
• Identify setbacks: Sudden drops in velocity over time can help you highlight issues such as unclear user stories, context switching, or external factors. Catching these early can help you reduce delays and address potential roadblocks down the road.
• Refocus retrospectives: Velocity data can provide you with deeper insights into your team's performance. It can help you guide retrospective meetings so you can focus on impactful improvements rather than surface-level observations.

All this leads to another advantage:

Sprint velocity helps you manage stakeholder expectations and keep your plans realistic. If you’re a product owner, reliable velocity metrics allow you to communicate timelines clearly while accounting for external factors and project complexity. This ensures an even more efficient connection between planning and delivery.

Pro tip: Axify’s Value Stream Mapping (VSM) gives you a complete view of actual velocity. We can help you identify bottlenecks and improve your workflows for better results.

How to Calculate Sprint Velocity: Traditional vs Axify

To calculate sprint velocity the traditional way, sum up the story points from completed user stories in each sprint. Then, divide the total story points by the number of sprints and you get the average sprint velocity. This average can provide you with a reliable sprint velocity estimate for your future sprints.

To calculate sprint velocity using Axify’s no-estimate approach, sum up the completed issue count from each sprint. Then, divide the total issue count by the number of sprints to find the average velocity. This average becomes your baseline for planning future sprints based on real performance data.

Here’s the sprint velocity formula in Axify:

(Completed Issues from Sprint 1 + Sprint 2 + Sprint 3) ÷ Number of Sprints = Average Velocity

For example, if your team completed 18, 22, and 20 issues over three two-week sprints, their average velocity is (18 + 22 + 20) ÷ 3 = 20. This becomes your foundation for planning the next sprint while keeping your team’s capacity in check.

A well-functioning scrum team's velocity relies on consistent sprint lengths, properly scoped backlog items, and accurate task estimations (in terms of issue count). While velocity is a key metric in Scrum, teams using Kanban or XP may prioritize flow efficiency or cycle time over velocity. Remember, only completed tasks count toward velocity—any unfinished work should carry over to the next sprint.

Pro tip: With Axify, you can automatically calculate throughput and see your team’s performance on clear, intuitive dashboards – regardless of the methodology you’re using. Whether you're monitoring velocity, flow efficiency, or other metrics, Axify helps you spot trends and plan future iterations well. That’s how you get high-quality delivery – always.

Sprint Velocity vs. Capacity

Understanding the difference between sprint velocity and capacity is important for effective Agile planning in your team.

We already explained that sprint velocity reflects the number of tasks completed in a given sprint. So, it’s a backward-looking metric that relies on completed product backlog items to guide your planning. 

Sprint capacity doesn’t look at historical velocity data.

Capacity focuses on planning your next sprint based on your available resources. It accounts for external factors such as team members on vacation or increased workload from complex challenges.

For example, if a member of your team is unavailable, the sprint capacity will be reduced, which directly impacts your sprint velocity estimation. 

Tracking capacity has many advantages.

It ensures that your team sets achievable goals, prevents burnout, and avoids technical debt by aligning workload with delivery expectations.

Pro tip: Axify can help you track all flow metrics, from historical throughput to workflow efficiency. This gives you a comprehensive view of your team’s performance, which can help you plan for stable and consistent velocity over time.

What Is Normal Sprint Velocity?

We don't have a universal answer to what defines “normal” sprint velocity. Each team works differently, and velocity depends on factors such as your team's size, experience level, sprint length, and the complexity of user stories. Instead of trying to match industry standards, you should try to develop a baseline that works best for your team.

A stable velocity typically emerges after several sprints. By tracking issue counts completed in a consistent time frame, like two-week sprints, you can identify patterns and set expectations. We'd like to remind you that even a well-functioning team’s velocity may fluctuate due to external factors like holidays or last-minute changes in the product backlog.

However, unexplained changes in this sprint velocity pattern could indicate bottlenecks.

For example, if you notice a sudden drop in velocity, it could point to unclear tasks or technical debt. You can address these during your sprint retrospectives or reviews.

Pro tip: Axify’s Daily Digest provides clear insights into your team’s tasks.

On the one hand, our visual representation of Agile metrics helps you get a contextual interpretation of your results. This analysis helps you maintain consistent velocity while adapting to the specific needs of your individual team.

On the other hand, seeing current status ages and issue activity counts for each task helps you tackle older tasks first. It’s always a good idea to not let tasks age too much. This way, you can improve sprint velocity.

Factors That Affect Sprint Velocity

Sprint velocity is influenced by several factors, many of which are unique to your team and project. Recognizing these factors can help you better plan sprints and maintain a consistent velocity over time.

Here are some of the most common factors that impact sprint velocity:

• Team size: The number of people on your team impacts how much work you can complete in a sprint. If you’re adding or losing members, be prepared to adjust your team’s capacity.
• Skill level: The expertise of your team matters. When you work with people who have diverse skills, you can tackle more tasks in hours, even when dealing with complex stories.
• Team stability: If your team has been working together for a while, you’ve probably noticed better communication and efficiency. This can boost your velocity and make sprints smoother.
• Experience: Your team’s experience level plays a big role. The more experienced your group is, the faster they can complete tasks and handle unexpected challenges.
• User story complexity: We advise you to watch out for complex stories. If they’re too big, break them down into smaller, more manageable tasks to keep your sprint on track.
• External constraints: You should also keep an eye on holidays, dependencies on other teams, or sudden changes to tasks in your sprint. These can disrupt your progress and affect your velocity.

Being aware of these factors helps you adjust your approaches to planning sprints. For example, if you know that a team member will be out during a sprint, you can adjust your goals accordingly.

Pro tip: With Axify, you can track blockers and sprint issues in real time.  It gives you clear insights into recurring challenges so you can adjust your sprint planning, tackle disruptions, and keep your team’s velocity steady over time.

For example, the issue type time investment metric shows you if you’re spending too much time on certain tasks. Lead time for changes shows whether changes take too long to make. And the team wellbeing tracker shows if your team members feel they’re not working in an inclusive team.

How to Visualize Sprint Velocity

Visualizing sprint velocity helps you understand your team’s performance over time. Axify can help you easily track velocity trends, spot irregularities, and adjust your planning expectations accordingly. Instead of guessing where issues might be, you’ll see clear data that shows patterns in completed work and potential slowdowns.

Axify’s dashboards give you a straightforward visual representation of your team’s velocity. Whether you want to focus on a specific sprint, team level, or a particular timeframe, you can customize the filters to get exactly the insights you need.

With these visuals, you can compare historical velocity to your current sprint and adjust your plans to keep things on track. For example, if you notice a consistent dip in velocity when tackling complex projects, you can refine your task sizing or sprint planning to improve results.

Our goal is to give you actionable insights, not just raw data. With Axify’s real-time tracking and intuitive dashboards, you’ll always know how your team is performing and what changes to make for more consistent velocity.

Best Practices for a Consistent Sprint Velocity

Keeping your sprint velocity consistent is important for delivering reliable results. Here are some actionable practices you can adopt to maintain steady progress and improve your team’s efficiency.

1. Break Down Tasks

You should keep your tasks small and manageable. Large or vague user stories typically slow down sprints. When you break tasks into smaller units, your team can focus better and finish work faster.

2. Limit Work in Progress (WIP)

We believe that too many ongoing tasks can overwhelm your team and create bottlenecks. Hence, you should limit the number of items in progress to maintain focus and keep velocity stable.

3. Make Work Visible

Another thing that you can do is to use tools like Axify to track your team’s workflow with Value Stream Mapping. A clear visual representation helps everyone stay on the same page and quickly spot potential delays.

4. Avoid Over-Commitment

You should also plan sprints based on your team’s historical velocity. Overloading your sprint backlog might lead to unfinished work and missed goals.

5. Prevent Aging Items

Tasks sitting idle for too long can disrupt your flow. Therefore, you should regularly review the sprint backlog to ensure no item is forgotten or delayed unnecessarily.

6. Manage Interruptions

Lastly, we advise you to protect your team’s focus during the sprint. You should limit unnecessary meetings, context switching, or unplanned changes that could derail your team's progress over time.

Mistakes You Can Make When Tracking Sprint Velocity

Tracking sprint velocity can help improve your team’s performance, but some common mistakes can lead to misunderstandings or misguided goals. 

We already discussed one such mistake – using story points instead of issue counts.

Here’s what else to watch out for.

Treating Velocity as a Performance Metric

Velocity measures output, not the value your team delivers. Using it to evaluate individual or team performance can create unnecessary pressure and lead to rushed, lower-quality work. Instead, you should focus on how velocity supports planning and delivery.

Feel free to use our software delivery forecasting tool to plan your deliveries with ease and peace of mind.

Over-Focusing on Increasing Velocity

We believe that aiming to always increase velocity can backfire. Your team might inflate estimates or sacrifice quality to hit higher numbers. Remember, consistent velocity is more important than hitting an unrealistic sprint goal.

Comparing Issue Counts Between Teams

Issue counts are relative to each team’s evaluation process. Comparing one team’s velocity to another’s is misleading and unfair since each team deals with different domain complexity, skills, and compositions. We advise you to keep comparisons within the same team over time.

Misusing Velocity to Manage Stakeholder Expectations

Using velocity to promise delivery dates without accounting for external factors, like dependencies or changing priorities, can hurt your team's credibility. Therefore, you should be transparent about velocity as an estimate, not a fixed commitment.

Looking Too Far Back in History

Using outdated velocity data from months ago can give you a distorted view. Teams improve and evolve over time, so you should focus on recent sprints for more accurate planning.

Ignoring Other Metrics

Relying solely on velocity will make you ignore important Agile metrics like flow efficiency and cycle time or certain blockers. Quality metrics (i.e., defect density, test coverage, and escaped defects) are also important to consider. Velocity alone doesn’t provide the full picture of your team's productivity.

Scale Your Sprint Velocity with Axify

Understanding sprint velocity helps you plan better, track progress, and improve your team’s workflow. You shouldn't just focus on numbers. We recommend that you use them to make informed decisions and deliver even more value. By avoiding common pitfalls and focusing on consistent velocity, you can create a more predictable and efficient development process.

With Axify, you can easily track sprint velocity and other key metrics. Our tools can help you visualize trends, identify blockers, and improve your team’s performance.

Are you ready to take your Agile planning to the next level? Book a demo with Axify today and see how we can help your team succeed.